Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment

by Nadwa Mossaad, research associate

A new report by Duke University, funded by the Foundation for Child Development, paints a dire portrait of U.S. children in 2010. Child poverty is expected to soar to 21 percent, higher than that of the severe recession during the 1980s. The current economic crisis is expected to wipe out any progress in child well-being made within the last 30 years.

The report’s Child Well-Being Index tracks several key child well-being indicators within seven domains: economic, health, behavioral, educational, community connectedness, social relationships and emotional well-being. All are expected to be negatively affected by the current recession.

The report warns against bad health outcomes due to higher rates of obesity, as parents substitute cheaper foods that are high in sugar content and low in nutritional value for higher-priced foods. Income is predicted to decline as parents lose jobs or become underemployed. Crime and victimization rates could increase as budget cuts will mandate less funding for programs aimed at curbing crime. Other budget cuts could reduce preschool and summer school programs for children.

In addition to rising poverty rates, obesity, and homelessness, the report warns against changes in family structure. Financial strain puts emotional stress on families, contributing to increases in divorce and single-parent families. Minority children, including children of immigrants, will inevitably be at a greater disadvantage than others.

Stay tuned for an article with more on the 2009 Child Well-Being Index report on PRB’s website next week.

by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs

The population in America’s largest cities is booming, according to new data released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. Just a few years ago, the annual growth rate in the 10 largest cities was around 0.5 percent per year, around half the national average. But the latest figures, from 2008, indicate that the population in America’s 10 largest cities is growing faster than the population living outside of those areas. 

(click on figure to view a larger version)

So what’s driving the change? There are a couple of factors at work. First, big cities are still important destinations for immigrants, who tend to be younger (of reproductive age) and create a lot of population momentum. Second, given the rising unemployment rate and drop in home prices around the country, fewer people are making long distance moves to places like Florida, or even local moves to the suburbs. Chicago, once a perennial population loser, is now growing faster than several former boom towns, including Jacksonville, Las Vegas, and even Cape Coral, Florida, which, a few years ago, was one of the fastest growing cities in the country.

The question for Chicagoans: How long can it last? When the economy bounces back, will people start leaving Chicago en masse?  Population trends are closely linked to job trends so future population growth in big cities such as Chicago depends, in part, on their ability to keep people employed.

by Charlie Teller, Bixby visiting scholar 

Teaching an entire semester’s graduate course in three weeks at the end of the academic year seemed a dubious task under normal conditions. But teaching it at the end of Ethiopia’s long dry season with shortages of electricity and water, not to mention scarcity of recent publications and slow internet speed in the mountainous capital city of Addis Ababa, made it even more challenging.

I had taught at the Flagship University of Addis Ababa’s Institute of Population Studies for four years in the mid-to-late 1990s, and served as external thesis examiner off and on since then, but now the government really needed more Ph.D demographers as it greatly increased its student intake in higher education, even pushing to start a Ph.D program on top of an already overstretched masters degree program.

In one of the poorest countries in the world, with 13 million food insecure, the second largest population in Africa (nearly 80 million), and an annual population growth rate around 2.6 percent, we discussed theories of population and development and debated models of the demographic transition. In a secret ballot early on in the course, I was not surprised to find out most of the 22 mature graduate students were Malthusian pessimists or even alarmists.

The job of a good professor is to challenge his students into reconsidering their cynicism and, in this constrained setting, provide rays of hope that things might get better. In the past few years, my Ethiopian colleagues and I had published evidence that the country was unexpectedly progressing better along the demographic transition than most of its neighbors, and that it was surprisingly on track to meet many of the 2015 Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), especially in education and health.

In just a few weeks, in spite of the lack of computers, electricity, and inability to download publications from the internet, the students were able to work in  teams of two to three to read recent literature and access demographic and development data through sharing CDs, photocopies, and handouts. They closely assessed the quality of differing estimates of progress since 1990 on the MDGs: the 1993 National Population Policy and its ICPD+15 (2008) goals, and the 2005-08 Poverty Reduction Strategy.

Ethiopian population graduate students prepare outside on campus at dark when electricity went out. (Photo by Charlie Teller)

In their final exam, I asked if any had changed their minds away from pessimism, and why. To my pleasant surprise, some had after seeing progress on the some of the MDGs and social change in their own younger generation, calling themselves revisionists, neutralists,or cautious optimists.  They became convinced of the importance of using rigorous research methods and reliable indicators to closely monitor and evaluate the pace of the demographic transition and socioeconomic and gender inequities, as well as capacity building in research and training.

If these keen students in such a resource-constrained environment can learn so quickly, can’t a country under population pressure use its resilient and adaptive skills to begin to believe in their capacity to accelerate the demographic transition?    ?

by Farzaneh (Nazy) Roudi, program director, Middle East and North Africa

Iran’s demographic momentum is in favor of those who aspire for social and political change. According to the 2006 Iranian census, one in three people in Iran is between the ages of 15 and 29. Furthermore, half the Iranian population of more than 70 million is under age 30, born around the 1979 Islamic revolution or after (see the age pyramid below). For them, the Islamic revolution is history and they want change now to address today’s needs. By their very nature, young people throughout the world aspire for a life different from and better than their parents, and in fact they are often the force behind changes in their societies. 

Source: Statistical Center of Iran

The youth bulge is more evident in Iran than any other country in the world because Iran has experienced the fastest fertility decline in the last two decades or so, according to a recent United Nations report (see table A.14). According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education, fertility declined by more than two-thirds, from 6.6 births per woman in the mid-1970s to about 2 births per woman in 2006. The most surprising and impressive decline occurred in rural areas. In one generation (a period of about 30 years), Iranian women living in rural areas moved from giving birth to 8 children to around 2 children, on average. 

Iran’s Falling Fertility Rate by Area for Selected Years, 1977-2006

Source: Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education.

The rapid decline in the total fertility rate is due to simultaneous reduction at all ages: delay in childbearing by young couples, increased spacing of births by married women, and cessation of births by older women. These changes coincided with the revival of the national family planning program, delivered free through a nationwide network of primary health care facilities. Today, nearly 80 percent of married women of reproductive age use family planning and 60 percent of married women use a modern method.

Iranian women have been an accelerating force of development in the country, as manifested in their fertility behavior and desire to improve their life—55 percent of students enrolled in colleges and universities in 2005 were female. Having achieved their reproductive rights, Iranian women are now at the forefront of movements in the country that demand more rights and equality for all its citizens.

Whether Iran will manage to reap the benefits of its demographic dividend (having a large working-age population relative to the younger and older population groups who depend on the working-age population) all depends on how well its economy is equipped to create jobs for its rapidly expanding and mostly educated labor force. The youth unemployment rate (15 to 24 years old) stands at 23 percent, twice that of the total labor force. Finding a job is even more challenging for young women. One in three young Iranian women in the labor force (defined as either working or looking for a job) are unemployed.   Young Iranians have been leaving the country in large numbers to find jobs in faraway places as Canada and Australia. The cost to the country for losing its human capital is estimated to be $40 billion a year.

Unemployment and high costs of living, coupled with social and political restrictions, have made it increasingly difficult for young Iranians. The sudden uprising that erupted following the disputed presidential election of June 12 is a manifestation of all the underlying frustrations. Young people’s demands for more political and social freedom and economic security cannot be ignored, not only because they are living at the dawn of 21st century and their demands are legitimate, but also because of their sheer numbers.

by Carl Haub, senior demographer 

Few automobile introductions have attracted more media interest that Tata Motor’s new “one lakh” car, the Nano. That’s one lakh, or 100,000, rupees, roughly equivalent to US$ 2,000. The actual price to the consumer after taxes, dealer markup, etc. starts at about $2,500 for the Standard model. For $3,000, you’ll get the CX model with air conditioning and $3,500 will get you the LX, which adds power windows and electric central locking. So much for the $2,000 car.

In a sense, the Nano is an “almost car.” Its rear-mounted 33-horsepower two-cylinder engine is more like a motorbike engine and its tiny trunk area is accessible only by pulling the back seats forward. Despite its concept as a city car, few owners are likely to hesitate to take it on the open road. It is not at all unusual to see families of four travelling from city to city on a two-wheeler. Roof racks will likely be a popular accessory. But its appeal to those who now ride two-wheelers is that it gets one out of the rain.

Photo used under Creative Commons from Jaaziel.

The little car got off to a slow start when its planned factory in Singur, West Bengal was protested due to its need to take over agricultural lands. The protesting lasted for several years and Tata finally pulled out, leaving the partially-completed factory abandoned. Enticed by very generous (and controversial) financial incentives from Chief Minister Narendra Modi of the western state of Gujarat – no stranger to controversy himself – Tata is now building a new plant in Sanand in that state. So, full production has been subject to a serious delay.

The much-publicized first ordering period was held from April 9th to the 25th of this year when the first buyers could place a deposit or pay in cash in advance. A total of 203,000 vehicles were ordered – not bad at all for a car that promised something of a wait. Or a very long wait: A lottery will soon be held for the first 100,000 lucky buyers who can expect to receive their Nano anytime from this July to the end of next year. Many of those losing out in the lottery will likely have to wait until sometime in 2011 or when the new factory can come up to speed. Cancellations of up to 50 percent among the losers are being predicted although interest is being paid on all deposits.

The number of orders in April was considered well below expectations, although that number has never been well defined. And, interestingly, half of the orders were for the pricey LX and only 20 percent for the basic Standard model. It is likely that quite a few were purchased by comparatively wealthy non-resident Indians (NRIs) overseas as gifts, especially as huge numbers of weddings took place this April, an auspicious period.

So, the Nano may revolutionize Indian roads, but not right away. But where will most Nanos ply? Even at its low price, the car is well beyond the means of most Indians except some in big cities. It should become almost ubiquitous in Delhi, India’s richest city but, in other states the story is likely to be different.  Uttar Pradesh, next door to Delhi with about 180 million population in 2004,  boasted a grand total of 391,000 cars in 2004 while Delhi, with 14 million population, had 1.2 million.

Who bought Nanos? Given the preference for the LX model, it may just be that fewer owners of two-wheelers actually traded up than were expected. Perhaps the Nano will become India’s favorite second car among the upper middle class. That would be a real revolution while trying to park all those additional cars would be a real adventure.

by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs

With the 2010 Census right around the corner, the Census Bureau is gearing up for one of the biggest hiring frenzies the United States has ever seen. Between 2009 and 2010, the Census Bureau hopes to hire 1.4 million temporary workers to help conduct census operations.

Let’s put those 1.4 million workers into perspective:

• The 1790 Census was conducted by 16 U.S. Marshals on horseback and their 650 assistants. (Today, most census enumerators must have a valid driver’s license and use of a car.) 

• By April 2010, there will be about 130 million households in the United States. That means there will be more than one census worker for every 100 U.S. households.

• If all of the new census employees were drawn from the current ranks of the unemployed, the unemployment rate in would drop from 8.9 percent to 8.0 percent, almost a full percentage point.

• Maine’s total population, according to the latest census estimates, is around 1.3 million.  

Photo used under Creative Commons from adria.richards.

Why are so many workers needed? Census 2010 is being billed as the “largest peacetime operation” ever conducted by the U.S. federal government. This spring, the Census Bureau hired 140,000 workers to help update more than 145 million addresses in the Census Bureau’s database. We recently spied one of these workers in Dupont Circle, the DC neighborhood where PRB’s offices are located.  She wore a census badge and was entering data into a handheld computer.

However, most of the census workers will be hired in early 2010. Their main job is to interview—by phone or in person—people who fail to fill out and return their questionnaires. “Nonrespondent” households present a serious and growing problem for the Census Bureau. There were 42 million nonrespondent households in 2000 and more are expected in 2010, including many immigrants and others who fear and/or distrust the federal government.

Counting the U.S. population is not an easy job. But it is a critically important one. The federal government uses decennial census data to apportion congressional seats, draw state and local legislative districts, and to allocate billions of federal funds to states and local communities. Private organizations, such as PRB, use decennial census information to look at long-term demographic trends and to compare important population subgroups across states and local areas.

So we hope you will apply for the job. In the process, you might learn some interesting facts about your own community. For information about how to become a census taker in 2010, visit the Census Bureau’s website . For more information about the 2010 Census and why it’s important, visit PRB’s website. 

by Charlotte Feldman-Jacobs, program director, Gender

Last week, I visited ground zero of hope and it wasn’t in Washington, London, or Geneva.  It was 60 kilometers outside of Nairobi, in a small town called Kajiado.

With 15 journalists in a workshop funded by USAID and organized by PRB, I went to the AIC Girls’ Primary School and Rescue Center and although we were hot, dusty, and grumpy from the traffic jams and rough roads when we arrived, we left hopeful and inspired.

While we were there we heard from the headmaster, Nicholas Muniu, and a dedicated staff member named Catherine that change is happening: that girls named Emily and Beatrice were among the girls who had come to the school escaping from certain early marriage and female genital mutilation (FGM); that among the 706 girls now at the school, 217 were rescued from early marriage and FGM; that some were brought by uncles, fathers, and mothers who wanted something better for these daughters. Even more amazing, many came by themselves.

The school began in 1959 with 20 girls and now has more than 700, with a waiting list of girls who want to come. While some of the girls were only rescued after they had already been subjected to FGM or early marriages, the school is now rescuing many before this happens. While the school was formerly viewed with suspicion—and even met with spear-carrying husbands and fathers—the school is gaining respect quickly.  The graduates of Kajiado graduate with top academic skills, according to headmaster Muniu.  And more importantly, the thinking among chiefs in the region has changed dramatically. “Chiefs now accept that educating girls is more important than getting two cows for them in early marriages,” Muniu says.

It quickly becomes apparent that the school, which runs through grade 8, is more than a shelter for these girls, it’s a doorway to a brighter future. While customs and laws change slowly in this part of the world, these girls quickly grasp that they can be anything they want.  They study hard, they live without many of the amenities expected in the West, they sometimes say goodbye forever to families who would force them to undergo old customs and harmful traditional practices. But they have dreams, these girls. When asked what they want to be, they answer doctors and lawyers and pilots. Though they may never have been on an airplane, I know that some day they will be.  For this school has given them wings to fly.

by Yordanos Goushe, senior reporter,  Ethiopia Radio TV Agency

The most effective way of saving young girls from FGM, rape, and early marriage is strengthening the optional center of care that functions within the society. Women in the society remain the vanguard to take actions against the impairing conditions for young girls through a most supporting structure.        

On Saturday, April 25, 2009 we Women’s Edition journalists visited the Kajiado AIC Rescue Center, a center that was created by people who were committed to educating young girls. The girls in the center have stories to tell about Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), early marriage, and rape.  These stories make you wonder how such things are done by a parent to his/her own offspring in the name of culture.  However, there are also beautiful and rare stories of hope. If we ask the young girls in the rescue center, they will tell us they want to be a lawyer, politician, public figure, and a journalist. 

Taking these and other difficulties of Kajiado girls into consideration, the AIC Rescue Center has taken the step of working with the chiefs, fathers, and mothers of the community. Now the chiefs are protecting the young girls who go back to their community for school break and fathers are bringing their daughters before the cutting is done to them.

The AIC Rescue Center receives girls  from all over Kenya, some travelling a long distance after being the victims of rape, others running away from home because they do not want to be cut. The center provides good education, food, and shelter for these young girls who have seen a lot at an early age. The center receives all of them with an open hand even if it has limited capacity; there is always room for one more young girl who comes to the rescue center to have another chance in life.

There is a very important message which comes across from the AIC Rescue Center: there are young girls who are saying “no” to the cultural barriers in their communities and these girls need help, so it’s our duty to help them find a solution.

by Victoria Ebin, news media coordinator

PRB is carrying out three workshops on family planning for West African journalists between January and June of this year. The first workshop, held in Dakar in January, was for 16 print and broadcast journalists; the second, with 19 participants, took place in Ouagadougou in April; and the third workshop will be in Bamako in May. These workshops somewhat resemble a family reunion. They bring together print and broadcast journalists from Burkina Faso, Mali, and Senegal that PRB has worked with for more than a decade. Back in the mid-1990s, many of the editors-in-chief of the current crop of participants were already senior journalists and were part of PRB’s long-running media training project, Pop’Mediafrique, that met regularly until 2005.

Read the rest of this entry »

by Chinyere Fred-Adegbulugbe, senior correspondent, The Punch, Lagos, Nigeria and member of PRB’s Women’s Edition

The Women’s Edition training continued on Thursday with a field to a Marie Stopes centre in a Nairobian slum called Kanyemi. There are about 27 Marie Stopes centres throughout Kenya. Though small, the Kayemi centre is already making its presence known in the neighbourhood with the comprehensive reproductive services it offers which includes different family planning methods, pap smear, Voluntary Counselling and testing (VCT), and a host of others. A one-stop reproductive health shop, you might say.

Records from the staff showed that Kenyan women and men are beginning to make the most profitable journey toward that point where they take their sexual and reproductive health seriously; about 15 women have come for tubal litigation in the centre this April and the month isn’t over yet!

The afternoon saw the group back at Fairview hotel where Family Planning in the Africa was analysed using SWOT – Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats. The general feeling was that where there is political will and government commitment in any country, many more people whether rich or poor would be able to access family planning services. While realising that there are indeed real threats to effective family planning programs, there is also the need to grab with both hands opportunities (wherever they are found) that could bring more positive results. Everyone seems to be on the same page here.

The day ended with a dinner at the Carnivore. Did you say the Carnivore? Yes, the Carnivore and it was quite an experience. The most daring of the pack even got and actually ate crocodile meat and some Kenyan native dance steps.  It was fun, fun fun!