Behind the Numbers: The PRB blog on population, health, and the environment

by Carl Haub, senior demographer

There has been quite a bit of media coverage on the recent decline in the U.S. birth rate, including a blog I wrote in March http://prbblog.org/index.php/2013/03/26/why-has-the-u-s-birth-rate-recently-declined/.

Much of the decline was due to a surprisingly large drop in the Hispanic birth rate. But how do Hispanic teenagers compare to other ethnic groups on this measure? Simply put, just the same. Read the rest of this entry »

by Mark Mather, associate vice president, Domestic Programs

The Census Bureau released alternative U.S. population projections today, to supplement the “middle series” projections they released in December. The new projections are based on three immigration scenarios, or “variants,” each with different implications for growth:

• Low immigration: Assumes that net international migration will range from 704,000 to 824,000 per year.
• Constant immigration: Assumes immigration levels will remain at current levels (around 725,000 per year).
• High immigration: Assumes immigration levels will range from 884,000 to 1.6 million per year.

Projections of the U.S. population, under each of these scenarios, are significantly lower than those produced by the Census Bureau just a few years ago. The Census Bureau’s “low immigration” series from 2009 projected that the U.S. population would reach 422.6 million by 2050. But the “high immigration” series released today projects a smaller U.S. population in 2050—just 415.7 million people—than the previous “low immigration” series (see table).

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by Carl Haub, senior demographer

EQUATORIAL GUINEA. The 2011 Equatorial Guinea Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) summary report has measured a relatively high level of fertility. The total fertility rate (TFR, or the average number of children per woman) was reported as 5.1. Given that the country’s TFR in 1950 was estimated at 5.5 by the United Nations Population Division, there has been very little decrease over a long period. Women gave six children as their ideal, while men opted for seven children. The TFR for urban areas was 4.4, and higher for rural areas at 5.9.

Childbearing begins early in Equatorial Guinea, on average when the mother is 18 years old. Among women ages 25 to 49, 14 percent had married or were in union by age 15. Among men, however, less than half  below age 30 were married by age 15. And 17 percent of women were in polygamous unions.

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by Carl Haub, senior demographer

In a population projection, it’s customary to assume that all countries with higher birth rates will see their total fertility rate (TFR, or the average number of children per woman) drop to 2.1 children, the “replacement level” (a couple “replaces” itself by having two children, and thus doesn’t add to population growth).

While preparing the upcoming 2013 edition of PRB’s World Population Data Sheet (release scheduled for Sept. 10) and previous editions over the years, I’ve been noticing a group of countries whose rates have come down quite a bit but they seem to be resisting further decline. Here are three countries with TFRs spanning from 2000 to 2011: Read the rest of this entry »

by Amanda Roach, program assistant, International Programs

In 2012, and for the first time in history, women held 20 percent of seats in the world’s national governing bodies (parliaments and congresses), nearly doubling since 1997, according to the Inter-Parliamentary Union (IPU). However, these gains were spread disproportionately among the world’s nations and the progress has been too slow to achieve the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goal 3 of equal representation for women by 2015.

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This is the last in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.

by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs

As I listen to people give their presentations, I continue to be reminded that high-quality data is critical to decisionmaking. Similarly, consistent definitions need to be employed that reflect the current thinking on issues. For example, the standard definition of the dependency ratio includes the population ages 0 to 14 and the population ages 65 and over in the numerator (they are the dependent populations) and the population ages 15 to 64 in the denominator (they are the population that provide support). Yet if one of the goals of investing in human capital is to keep people in school longer, perhaps the definition needs to be modified so that the people ages 15 to 19 fall into the dependent population. Our definitions need to be consistent with our goals.

The first blog I ever wrote for PRB considered the fact that national-level data cover up the disparities that exist in a country. Read the rest of this entry »

This is the sixth in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.

by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs

It’s worth noting that African nations have signed a number of regional proclamations and agreements that support the health and well-being of their people. A speaker on youth reminded the audience that the African Union has put forward a number of agreements that support youth labor programs; the Abuja agreement calls for countries putting 15 percent of their budgets into health; another speaker pointed out that Africa has numerous agreements that support maternal and child health. But what difference do these agreements really make?

As I reflect on the number of policies, agreements, and declarations that have been signed into existence, I can’t help but wonder why progress on social and economic development is so slow. Why sign so many declarations if there isn’t the political will to carry them out?  One thing we have learned from work in policy and advocacy efforts is that there is no substitute for political commitment. Historically, we saw it in Thailand and South Korea; today we see it in Rwanda and Malawi. Leaders must step up and speak out in favor of the issues that they are supporting through these declarations.

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This is the fifth in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.

by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs

Listening to participants at the expert meeting on industrialization for Africa, I’m struck by the fact that so much of the discussion focuses on economic development but there is little or no mention of the relationship that social development plays in the process. Talk about jobs creation, becoming middle-income countries, and increasing GNI per capita is important, but for many of these things to take place, nations will need to look at some of the underlying social issues that drive the desired economic growth. Our discussions about the demographic dividend—a model for economic development—have highlighted a number of issues related to social development, and we must not lose sight of how interrelated social development is with economic development.

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This is the fourth in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.

by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs

Thailand often is held up as a model of success for its efforts in family planning, but it’s amazing how quickly the country has transformed from rural and very poor to the modern economic powerhouse it is today, in a matter of a few decades. Yet Dr. Kosit Panpiemras, former minister of finance and industry of Thailand, laid out the story of Thailand’s success in four succinct points. It wasn’t easy for Thailand to accomplish its goals, but the policies and investments the country made were strategic and targeted.

Infrastructure policies. In the early 1960s, Thailand began investing in infrastructure. The country was rural and the economy was based on subsistence farming. By building roads and installing irrigation, farmers produced more and had an outlet for selling their produce. By helping farmers get their produce to market, the economy became more focused on cash and less on subsistence agriculture. One result was that the need for large families to work the farm changed; as produce was sold, the desire for large families decreased and the desire for cash increased. And as a result, the demand for family planning increased. Another side effect was that people were available to work in places other than the farm.

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This is the third in a series of blogs posts on the Sixth Joint Annual Meetings of the ECA Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development; and AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and Finance.

by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs

It’s interesting to look at the head table where the presenters of this technical session are seated. I’m amazed that it’s nine men. How is it that every presenter is a man, when we are talking about issues like girls’ education, family planning, and child survival—all interventions that are influenced and largely implemented by women? I don’t doubt that having men speak about these issues can be persuasive—especially to other male ministers and experts—but giving a voice to both women and men is critical to fostering the dialogue about social and economic development.

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