Natural decrease improves in Russia. Russia continued its recovery in 2011 from its dramatic natural decrease (births minus deaths) of past years, but not from a rising birth rate. Natural decrease in 2011, just reported by the national statistics office GOSKOMSTAT, fell further to -131,208 in 2011 from -241,340 in 2010. It had reached an eye-popping low point of -958,532 in 2000. But births in 2011 were basically the same as in 2010, 1,793,828 vs. 1,789,623. It was the decline in deaths from 2,030,963 in 2010 to 1,925,036 in 2011 that resulted in a rosier natural decrease. Interesting development.
That’s a lot of marriages in one day. The day one gets married in India depends upon astrology. Marriages are heavily concentrated during a propitious day or days. But I recently learned that back on Nov. 28, 2011, there were 60,000 marriages in Delhi (The Indian Express, Nov. 27, 2011). I have been there when there were about 18,000, but 60,000 is truly phenomenal. Hindu and Sikh wedding ceremonies take place over a period of days and are lavish affairs requiring a tent venue for the groom to prepare and some type of wedding hall. That’s in addition to white horses, brass bands, and fireworks for the baarat when the groom processes to the wedding venue with his family. Wish I’d been there!
And, yes, a bit more about Taiwan. Taiwan, which recorded the lowest total fertility rate (TFR — the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) in recent world history, if not in all history, at 0.9 children per woman during 2010, the unlucky year of the Tiger. In 2011, the Rabbit year, births jumped to 196,627 from 166,886 in 2010. While the Rabbit year is not particularly auspicious, it seems some couples waited until the Tiger Year had ended to have a child. The Dragon year began on January 23, 2012 and is a very auspicious year. That will be followed by the Snake year, which is not particularly auspicious for births. So, are we are likely to see a bit of a “baby boom,” but only for a while? The Taiwanese government is very worried about the population aging consequences of such a low birth rate.
Census news. Canada has reported the early results of its May 10, 2011 census: 33,476,688. Population growth was larger from the 2006 to 2011 censuses in western provinces and territories, such as Yukon (11.7 percent) and Alberta (10.8 percent). Nova Scotia has the slowest growth, an increase of only 0.9 percent in the period. Nationally, the country’s census counts increased by 5.9 percent between the censuses, the highest rate among the G8 countries. According to Statistics Canada, the count was about 1 million less than the population previously estimated for July 1, 2011. Following studies of both undercount and overcount, Statistics Canada suggests the higher precensal estimate continue to be used Canada will then base new population estimates on the results. In 2001, the net undercount was 2.99 percent and, in 2006, it was 2.67 percent. The improvement in 2006 was due to an increase in overcounting which more than offset the increase in undercounting. The 2011 undercount study is scheduled for release in March 2013.
The Cameroon 2011 Demographic and Health Survey – Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey is the fourth DHS in a series that began in 1991. As so often observed in sub-Saharan countries, the birth rate decline has “stalled” at a high level and, in Cameroon’s case, for quite some time. The survey interviewed 15,426 women ages 15 to 49 and 7,191 men ages 15 to 59 from January to August, 2011. The total fertility rate (TFR — the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) obtained in the survey was 5.1 for the three-year period preceding the survey. For urban women, the TFR was 4.0 and, for rural women, who were a 46.1 percent of the sample, 6.4. The TFR in the 2010 DHS was actually slightly higher than that obtained in the 2004 survey, when it was 5.0 nationally, and 6.1 for rural women while that of urban women remained unchanged. TFR decline came to an end in Cameroon from 1998 onwards as can easily be seen in the figure below. In the survey, 49.3 percent of women with five living children said they did not wish to have any additional children and 64.9 percent of those with six or more children also said that they wished to cease childbearing. Of those two groups, the percentage who declared themselves to be sterile or who were sterilized was 5.1 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.
In the survey, 23.4 percent of currently married women said that they were using some form of family planning, with 14.4 percent using a modern method. Use of the male condom accounted for more than half of modern use at 7.6 percent, followed by 3 percent using injectables, and 1.9 percent using the contraceptive pill. Reported contraceptive use was similar to that in the 2004 DHS, which was 26 percent for all methods and 12.5 percent for modern methods. (In the 2007 MICS, contraceptive use was reported as 39.7 percent for all methods and 17.6 for modern methods. TFR data were not collected.)
by Jay Gribble, vice president, International Programs
With ICFP 2011 now underway, Wednesday morning’s plenary focused on the demographic dividend—the idea that through reducing fertility, the population structure can be modified and set the stage for economic development. Kenya and Indonesia were among the countries presented in the plenary.
Using data from the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, USAID’s Scott Radloff presented a population pyramid of Kenya’s age structure (see figure below); however, instead of showing the entire population in Kenya in one illustration, he showed the poorest quintile on the left side and the wealthiest quintile on the right. This presentation of data made me think of the demographic inequalities that exist within Kenya or any other country. In the poorest quintile, approximately 55 percent of the population was under age 15; in the wealthiest quintile, the population bulge was between ages 20 and 34—representing 35 percent of the quintile. Perhaps we can think of an emerging “middle-age bulge” rather than the “youth bulge” that we so frequently talk about. Whether we talk about Kenya or any other country, it’s important to remember that national-level statistics hide variations that exist within different segments of that population. And in response to these variations, policymakers need to target programs and interventions toward those most in need.
Source: 2008-2009 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey
Fertility in Democratic Republic of Congo. The 2010 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is now available and reports a total fertility rate (TFR — the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) of 6.3 children per woman, exactly the same as in the 2007 Demographic Health Survey (DHS). The DHS, which collected full birth histories also shows that has been essentially no change in birth rates by age of mother since at least 1988. The MICS surveys are taken by UNICEF, together with national ministries and other international organizations; DHS surveys are taken by ICF Macro as a part of the MEASURE DHS program, with a similar group of partners.
Shocking, But True. In case you missed it, 285 girls in Satara district in the Indian state of Maharashtra recently changed their first names from either the Marathi language Nakusha or Nakushi which means, get ready, “unwanted!.” District officials in Satara received certificates with their new names and a bouquet of flowers. There is a campaign in Maharashtra, where the practice is prevalent, to eliminate this naming practice. But, by tradition, naming your daughter that supposedly makes it likely that one’s next birth will be a greatly preferred boy baby. Read more here.
Family Planning in Africa: A Sometime Thing. A new study released by the Department of Population, Family and Reproductive Health of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health found that family planning is still largely used in Africa not to limit the number of births, but to space them. The study was conducted in Kenya, Madagascar, Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal, Tanzania, and Uganda. The effect of this can be seen in quite a few Sub-Saharan countries. In Zambia, for example, the use of “modern contraception” (primarily the pill, injectables, and condoms) was quite high in the 2007 DHS at 32.7 percent among married women but the TFR was a lofty 3.2. In the scatterplot below, the clustering of countries with high TFRs and greatly varying levels of contraceptive use is quite clear.
Some new data are available in a recent report from the U.S. Department of Commerce on internet access in the United States. Overall, 7 out 10 American households have broadband internet access, a higher figure than I would have guessed. Predictably, there is a strong correlation between socioeconomic factors and internet access, with poorer and less-educated households less likely to have broadband in their homes. But income and education don’t explain the whole picture. There is a strong racial and geographic disparity as well: 81 percent of Asian households and 72 percent of white households have broadband, while only 57 percent of Hispanic and 55 percent of black households do. In addition, while 70 percent of urban households have broadband, only 57 percent of rural households have high-speed internet access. A variety of initiatives are attempting to address the urban/rural broadband gap. A $7 billion program by the National Telecommunications and Information Administration and the Department of Agriculture is providing grants to state and local projects that are developing broadband infrastructure and expanding computer access in public schools.
These data made me curious to find how American public schools are faring in terms of internet access. To my surprise, according to a 2010 report from the U.S. Department for Education based on data from 2008, 100 percent of U.S. schools have one or more instructional computers with internet access and 97 percent of schools had one or more instructional computers located in classrooms. Of course, whether these computers are new or work well, and whether the internet connection is reliable, especially in poorer communities, isn’t clear. The report does, however, note that “opinions on the use of educational technology in the school differed by poverty concentration. A larger percentage of schools with low poverty concentration than schools with high poverty concentration agreed that — teachers are sufficiently trained in technology usage (74 percent versus 62 percent).”
Many organizations and media stories have reported the finding that for the first time in history, half of the world’s people live in urban areas. An article in The Financial Timestakes a look at the growth of cities and its attendant messiness and chaos in much of the developing world. Although most urban growth worldwide is taking place in medium-sized cities, it is the massive cities of more than 10 million that are seen as emblems of population growth and urbanization. As the article notes, there were three “mega-cities” in 1975: New York, Tokyo, and Mexico City. By some counts, there are more than 20 mega-cities now, with three in Africa and 11 in Asia. Unsurprisingly, the fastest urban growth rates are in Africa and Asia. Take a look at this map from PRB’s DataFinder — the darker the color, the faster the rate of urban population growth:
Many geographic names have changed in India since independence in 1947. For example, major streets were renamed. Queen’s Road in Delhi became Janpath (People’s Road) and many cities gained a “MG Marg” (Mahatma Gandhi Boulevard). But now a major state and India’s fourth-largest in population, West Bengal, has announced it wishes to change its name to Paschim Banga, which, in the Bengali local language means, well, West Bengal. One of the new names considered by the West Bengal Assembly in Kolkata was actually Banga Desh. Now that would have been a bit confusing! Names changes must approved by the national Parliament in Delhi, and it is likely to pass.
This is not the first change in a state name in India. When a number of hill districts in northwest Uttar Pradesh were separated from “UP,” the new mountainous state was called Uttarranchal, which, rather poetically, means “Northern Veil.” But later, that name was changed to the rather bland Uttarakhand, meaning “North Area.” Two other new states were created in 2000, with Jharkhand separated from Bihar and Chhattisgarh from Madhya Pradesh. The state of Orissa also plans to change its name to Odisha. There is a huge controversy going on now in Andhra Pradesh state with considerable agitation and violence to create a new state of Telangana. This could result in Andhra Pradesh being split into two states. That could certainly complicate things for NGOs working in HIV/AIDS in that high-prevalence state. And, the splitting of states causes considerable headaches in time series of demographic data. Imagine in the U.S., if we suddenly had to deal with data for North and South California!
Temple scene in Dilli...oops, Delhi. Photo: Carl Haub/PRB.
All of this led me to believe that learning even more about place names in India might make some fun lunchtime reading. In 1947, India consisted of over 900 Princely States from which a more manageable structure had to be established. Most were quite small and more or less disappeared. Not the Nizam of Hyderabad, however, who had to be forced out and much of his territory became the state of Andhra Pradesh (South State). Nehru did not want states established on a linguistic basis as this, he feared, would have the effect of setting up virtually separate countries within India. He lost that battle but India has nonetheless stayed together. Other states: Uttar Pradesh simply means North State and Madhya Pradesh Central State. Maharashtra, home to Mumbai, is named after a warlike tribe of the past, the Marathis. Rajasthan is also named after warriors, the Rajputs. Punjab means Five Rivers in Punjabi but there is a wry joke that, after Partition in 1947, only two remained, the other three winding up in Pakistan. Pakistan, by the way, means “Land of the Pure” but is also an acronym for the first letter of its five major provinces with the “i” tossed in to make it pronounceable. Later, Punjab lost much territory to the new state of Haryana (Green Land), which borders Delhi, and some districts to Himachal Pradesh (Himalayan State). In a compromise move the capital of Punjab, Chandigarh, a planned, grid-like, modern city laid out by the French architect Le Corbusier was retained as the capital of both Haryana and Punjab and their respective capitol buildings sit in the city’s northern quarter. Incidentally, if the new state of Telengana actually is carved out of Andhra Pradesh, that will create another capital problem. Hyderabad is the current capital of “AP” and a major Indian IT city. Perhaps it would be the capital of two states, too.
As a history buff, I was fascinated by a recent article on Smithsonian.com, “How the Potato Changed the World.” Largely based on Charles C. Mann’s new book 1493: Uncovering the New World Columbus Created, the article examines how the European discovery of the Americas changed the entire planet. For the vast majority of human history, life expectancy and fertility were determined by local agriculture practice. In the millennia before widespread global trade in food, people’s livelihoods depended on the type of food that was grown in the local community, and how the year’s harvest went. But once the Spanish, French, British, and other Europeans set up colonies in the Americas, a vast cross-pollination of food began. Before Columbus, no one in Europe had ever grown tomatoes, beans, sugar, and corn. Europeans, in turn, brought horses, sheep, and more to the new world. According to the article, no other crop had as much of a global impact as the potato – first discovered in Peru by Spaniards in the mid-1500s.
Photo: Creative Commons/mindwhisperings
So, what does all this have to do with population growth?
The 2010-2011 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) interviewed 15,688 women and 4,929 men ages 15 to 49. The total fertility rate (TFR — the average number of children would bear in her lifetime if the birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant) obtained in the survey was 5.0 for the three-year period preceding the survey. For urban women, the TFR was 3.9 and for rural women, who were 51 percent of the sample, 6.0. There has been slow annual decline in survey TFRs in the country of about 0.7 children per woman since 1986 when it was 6.6, although the pace of decline has slowed recently. The TFR obtained in Senegal’s 2008-2009 Malaria Indicator Survey was 4.9, suggesting a potential stall in TFR decline. When asked about their future childbearing desires, 35.7 percent of married women with five living children said that they wanted no more and, among women with six or more living children, 63.8 percent said that they wanted no more. The desire to cease childbearing only comes after one has quite a large family.
*Malaria Indicator Survey
Note: TFRs are for the three years before the surveys except 1999, which is five years.
Getting It Right. An Oct. 15 article in The Washington Post focuses on the concept of the demographic dividend, which has become quite popular among writers as well as to callers to PRB. There appears to us, however, that there is widespread confusion on just what it really means. When we ask callers what they mean by it, a frequent response is “Well, you know, that youth bulge.” There’s not much point asking what they mean by that. There is vague impression that a declining birth rate will somehow set off a rapid rise in GNP, propelling the country onto the world economic stage as an economic power. Why would that be? Will a country automatically reinvest funds it would have spent on education for a larger number of children into development? The Post article correctly points out that without large investments in education and training of its population for economically productive occupations, the dividend will be but an exercise in wishful thinking. The article’s description of the state of literacy and lack of skills is spot on. True, India does possess a growing number of trained and college educated workers. Their numbers, however, are a drop in the economic bucket in a country where 75 percent of the population lives on less than US$2 per day.
China Not Backing Off After All? There have been rumors regarding China’s relaxation of its “one-child” policy — in reality a 1.5 child policy. However, China Daily reported on Oct. 10 that Guangdong province, China’s largest in population with 104 million, will not have any policy change in its 12th Five-Year Plan for 2011-2015. Guangdong had asked the central government to modify the policy for couples in which either spouse had been an only child to be able to have two children. This was turned down and the new plan stipulates that the low birth rate must be maintained.
